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Archive: January 11, 2008

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Friday,  01/11/08  06:53 PM

So, tomorrow I am riding my first 200K!  I have ridden a number of centuries, but this will be the farthest / longest I've gone in one day.  Wish me luck :)  At least the weather is getting warmer...  and the route is mild, just a long out and back up the coast, with just 1,800' of climbing.

While I was navel gazing, looking in my referer log, I noticed a link to the big day, a post from November 2004 which chronicled the last Presidential election.  And I saw a link to the Electoral Vote website.  And I discovered it is back alive!  With lots of good data about the primaries...  and no doubt will track polls leading up the election, too.  A great resource.  That election was so amazing, I remember being shocked and relieved when I realized we wouldn't have to put up with President Kerry.  Whew.  I wonder what next November will bring?

Brings to mind an old post from Gerard Vanderleun that I'd saved: I will always vote the best.  Me, too.  Otherwise, we may lose the chance to vote at all.  I worry about Britain, for example.

Everyone is linking this: The ad Ms. doesn't want you to see.  Make sure you see the ad, first, then read what Ms. wrote when they rejected it: "publishing the ad 'will set off a firestorm' and that 'there are very strong opinions' on the subject".  Antisemitism is alive and well, apparently.

Snow falls on Baghdad, for the first time in memory.  Instapundit reader Kevin Greene comments, "I had no idea Al Gore was in Iraq" :)

Floyd Landis in 2006Neal Rogers fosters a conversation between Floyd Landis and Steve Johnson.  The conversation itself is less interesting than the fact that it took place. 

I know lack of motive doesn’t prove anything, but it seems weird that a GC rider like Floyd would dope with testosterone towards the end of a grand tour, given that 1) it wouldn't help, and 2) he would be caught.  Also, he was tested nine times during the 2006 Tour, including after stage 20 (the TT), and only the test after stage 17 was positive.  That seems weird, too.

there's something in the airWith Macworld next week, the Apple rumors are rampant.  ValleyWag thinks a new Macbook will include WiMax.  Well, that would be cool...  the big posters inside the Moscone Center say "there's something in the air"...  My only problem with this analysis is that I don't know that WiMax needs saving, seems like it is only a matter of time.

Dave Winer: the debate about the worth of podcasting.  "My phone doesn't have a business model. Neither does my porch. I still like having a phone and a porch because they help me meet new people and communicate with people I know. Same with my blog and podcast."  My blog doesn't have a business model either.  So be it.

This is so classic; the Visual Basic team blog touts VB2008 outperforms VB2005!  And what do they mean by this?  They mean the VB IDE is faster, it loads projects faster, it compiles faster, etc.  Not one word about whether the generated program is faster!  Which is really the most important thing...  As I said, classic.  I'm afraid the MS developers are clueless.

 

cowboys dilemma analyzed again

Friday,  01/11/08  11:02 PM

shoot self in footYesterday I analyzed the cowboy's dilemma.  Via email, Shawn Hillis suggested a simpler explanation of the counter-intuitive solution:

If you shoot at and hit the 50% guy, then you are dead on the very next shoot when 100% shoots at you.  So you either want to shoot at 100% or miss purposely.  Let's call the odds of you dying if you miss 'm'.  If you shoot at 100%, you'll either hit or miss.  The odds of you dying with a miss is the same as if you missed on purpose, m.  Let's call the odds of you dying if you hit, h.  So the odds of you dying if you aim at 100% are m + h, which both h & m > 0.  Thus, since h + m > m, you want to miss to minimize the odds of you dying.

He also suggested a nice refinement, allow each duelist to optionally shoot themselves in the foot.  If they're successful then they're injured, and they withdraw from the duel.  I haven't worked this out, but I suspect if you're a bad shot, shooting yourself in the foot might be a good option.

 
 

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